Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1faadc48bc3435fd41da5593486735a92ced3bec5b3f0ac77abaaf165f4015a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.12 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 51c | 565.69$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.19 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 51c | 465.87$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 51c | 240$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 203.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 11c | 193.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.45 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 132.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 127.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 127.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 125.69$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 48c | 112$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 55c | 103.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 20c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 100.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 53c | 91.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 41c | 90.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 83.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…dc4ebacked Yes | 51c | 80.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5970…c99bbacked Yes | 51c | 79.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 51c | 65.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 62.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 61c | 60.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 46c | 59.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 43c | 58.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 38c | 51.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 28c | 48.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 50c | 48.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 47c | 47.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 65c | 47.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 59c | 37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 50c | 36.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 39c | 34.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 34.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 55c | 34.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 57c | 30.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 56c | 30.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…99a0backed Yes | 61c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 51c | 23.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 46c | 23.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…1303backed Yes | 80c | 20.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 67c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.