Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fbc0c06afcfad647198201581890eee503f3a9a2898ec3c20ca7972875f4c71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Newcastle United FCof Newcastle United FC, Crystal Palace FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Crystal Palace FC | 68c | 18,664$12,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,663.31 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Newcastle United FC | 34c | 14,153$4,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,343.92 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Newcastle United FC | 26c | 4,890$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,621.76 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Newcastle United FC | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Crystal Palace FC | 67c | 935.47$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.03 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Newcastle United FC | 29c | 493.1$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.1 | 198 | 26.3%52 W · 146 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Newcastle United FC | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…1950backed Crystal Palace FC | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Newcastle United FC | 33c | 224$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.08 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…d976backed Crystal Palace FC | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…e578backed Newcastle United FC | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Newcastle United FC | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfe…8aaebacked Newcastle United FC | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Newcastle United FC | 34c | 132.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Newcastle United FC | 34c | 118.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Newcastle United FC | 33c | 106$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Newcastle United FC | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 181 | 24.9%45 W · 136 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Newcastle United FC | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Newcastle United FC | 31c | 78.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Crystal Palace FC | 69c | 69.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Newcastle United FC | 33c | 67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Newcastle United FC | 32c | 66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Newcastle United FC | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed Crystal Palace FC | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 159 | 55.3%88 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Newcastle United FC | 27c | 45.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Crystal Palace FC | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805b…be54backed Crystal Palace FC | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Crystal Palace FC | 67c | 36.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dff…d2d1backed Crystal Palace FC | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa096…31d6backed Crystal Palace FC | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…d023backed Crystal Palace FC | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Crystal Palace FC | 67c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Crystal Palace FC | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Crystal Palace FC | 68c | 29.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Crystal Palace FC | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Crystal Palace FC | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Crystal Palace FC | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Crystal Palace FC | 68c | 16.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Crystal Palace FC | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Crystal Palace FC | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…7b2ebacked Crystal Palace FC | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.