Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59ed1c2935fce48d6088184dd1f109b4144079ea67fb76a23e70c9c2250c812c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 7,307$2,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,919.03 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5873…f69abacked Over | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.84 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Over | 70c | 2,398$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 79c | 2,264$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.18 | 48 | 81.3%39 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Over | 44c | 1,512$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.99 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 1,106$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.01 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 76c | 870.21$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.91 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 826.52$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.41 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7b…9910backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 58c | 655.99$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.6 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.8wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Over | 74c | 415$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 36c | 405.6$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 60c | 342.87$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.87 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 74cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…1c7dbacked Over | 57c | 319.3$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 36c | 285.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Over | 77c | 259.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 178.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…f8a0backed Over | 77c | 160.16$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…0493backed Over | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Under | 50c | 138.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 52c | 135.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe4…8f49backed Over | 63c | 133.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 23c | 121.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…ef3abacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 52c | 115.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 48c | 114.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Over | 51c | 103$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 26c | 97.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 52c | 96.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 92.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…b24abacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 78c | 84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 54c | 74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 19c | 70.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 63c | 65.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Under | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Under | 26c | 62.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 51c | 50.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 48c | 45.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…eb92backed Over | 51c | 44.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Over | 55c | 41.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…5696backed Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6952…40d8backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed Over | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 70c | 25.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 78c | 21.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 158 | 66.5%105 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40e…2967backed Over | 54c | 20.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce42…5cddbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Over | 72c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Over | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb91…ff36backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 80cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Newcastle United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.