Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x200d499e514feada2e34c5a134b5f9142ad36a09f04b461966beb18460a94cdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duke Blue Devilsof Duke Blue Devils, California Golden Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $421,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $421,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Duke Blue Devils | 59c | 208,242$122,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85,462.41 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Duke Blue Devils | 59c | 205,744$121,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,442.35 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed California Golden Bears | 41c | 195,796$80,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80,276.25 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked California Golden Bears | 41c | 150,000$61,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,500 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed California Golden Bears | 41c | 20,000$8,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,200 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked California Golden Bears | 41c | 11,111$4,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,555.51 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked California Golden Bears | 41c | 7,500$3,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,075 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed California Golden Bears | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 301 | 39.2%118 W · 183 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked California Golden Bears | 42c | 4,583$1,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,908.11 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked California Golden Bears | 42c | 4,557$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.71 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed California Golden Bears | 44c | 3,409$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 212 | 48.1%102 W · 110 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed California Golden Bears | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed California Golden Bears | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked California Golden Bears | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked California Golden Bears | 41c | 750$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.5 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed California Golden Bears | 41c | 540$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.8 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked California Golden Bears | 41c | 515.5$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.36 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed California Golden Bears | 43c | 487.8$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.75 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed California Golden Bears | 41c | 266.28$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.74 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed California Golden Bears | 44c | 255$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed California Golden Bears | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked California Golden Bears | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Duke Blue Devils | 58c | 172.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…8ff5backed California Golden Bears | 42c | 151.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed California Golden Bears | 43c | 143.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed California Golden Bears | 43c | 143.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe0…323bbacked California Golden Bears | 24c | 140.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed California Golden Bears | 42c | 121.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked California Golden Bears | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed California Golden Bears | 42c | 110.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…eb4fbacked California Golden Bears | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8f4cbacked California Golden Bears | 43c | 99.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…f0ccbacked California Golden Bears | 43c | 98.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked California Golden Bears | 29c | 97.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed California Golden Bears | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked California Golden Bears | 43c | 86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ea…066ebacked California Golden Bears | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Duke Blue Devils | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed California Golden Bears | 43c | 70.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee53…7d97backed Duke Blue Devils | 58c | 60.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Duke Blue Devils | 68c | 59.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked California Golden Bears | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…1d14backed California Golden Bears | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad4d…a35abacked California Golden Bears | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd2…cf0bbacked California Golden Bears | 44c | 43.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…7f09backed California Golden Bears | 43c | 36.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Duke Blue Devils | 57c | 34.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked California Golden Bears | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f9…8282backed California Golden Bears | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Duke Blue Devils | 58c | 31.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…1321backed California Golden Bears | 44c | 30.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Duke Blue Devils | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked California Golden Bears | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed California Golden Bears | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed California Golden Bears | 42c | 29.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…901bbacked California Golden Bears | 43c | 28.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad0…cdc2backed Duke Blue Devils | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…a77bbacked California Golden Bears | 43c | 24.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Duke Blue Devils | 57c | 21.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-12.5)this page
- Duke Blue Devils vs. California Golden BearsDuke Blue Devils won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 152.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.