Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Duke Blue Devils vs. California Golden Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceeb3fbe72c91d4ede6e282093e91c30f95c2a30cf0f793dc15bab08842f6f83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duke Blue Devilsof Duke Blue Devils, California Golden Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed California Golden Bears | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 301 | 39.2%118 W · 183 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked California Golden Bears | 12c | 5,896$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.55 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41a…fd60backed California Golden Bears | 11c | 4,496$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed California Golden Bears | 27c | 2,050$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.61 | 105 | 11.4%12 W · 93 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed California Golden Bears | 21c | 1,528$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.24 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed California Golden Bears | 16c | 1,223$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.08 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked California Golden Bears | 10c | 1,199$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…52d8backed California Golden Bears | 1c | 1,043$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed California Golden Bears | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked California Golden Bears | 17c | 961.74$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.13 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b24…2d97backed California Golden Bears | 16c | 741.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…9719backed California Golden Bears | 16c | 726.41$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked California Golden Bears | 20c | 700$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 149 | 25.5%38 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked California Golden Bears | 10c | 610.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42fd…4661backed California Golden Bears | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ca…5ed4backed California Golden Bears | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked California Golden Bears | 9c | 421.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked California Golden Bears | 13c | 359$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…ca33backed California Golden Bears | 11c | 330$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked California Golden Bears | 11c | 299.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…f098backed California Golden Bears | 9c | 286.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked California Golden Bears | 16c | 284.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked California Golden Bears | 10c | 239.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked California Golden Bears | 10c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 181 | 29.3%53 W · 128 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked California Golden Bears | 14c | 161$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…361bbacked California Golden Bears | 11c | 134.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 98 | 21.4%21 W · 77 L | -17.7wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…07f3backed California Golden Bears | 21c | 126$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked California Golden Bears | 11c | 124.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 202 | 54.5%110 W · 92 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…3695backed California Golden Bears | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…7c5dbacked California Golden Bears | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked California Golden Bears | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…a27cbacked California Golden Bears | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed California Golden Bears | 22c | 91.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -12.0wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -64%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x39f7…919bbacked California Golden Bears | 16c | 88.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Duke Blue Devils | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Duke Blue Devils vs. California Golden Bearsthis page
- Duke Blue Devils vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 152.5Under won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-12.5)Duke Blue Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.