Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20a8ea778678bbe2c51caabdcefcdf3fe9c92819fb62c5f95075583816600eab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 72c | 1,237$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.4 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 828.01$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.08 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 477.16$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 382.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.87 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 351.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 337.93$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 207$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 206.79$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 74c | 193.51$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 192.72$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.26 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 190.31$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 178.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 171$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 29c | 162.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.17 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 28c | 157.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.61 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 56c | 156.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 146$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 70c | 136.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 129.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 115$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 105.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 56c | 99.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 33c | 94.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 88.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 31c | 86.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 66.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 64.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 59.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 53.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 50.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 30c | 49.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 44.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 52c | 33.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 68c | 30.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 27.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 26.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 76c | 23.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 73c | 18.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 73c | 18.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 16.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 65c | 15.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 73c | 14.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 91°F or below on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.