Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump announce withdrawal from Syria in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20c004e69415c6f48764ff89747082b2942592f36ab398d8bd01d55a59cdd68e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked No | 77c | 4,279$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.12 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 20c | 3,224$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.1 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,527$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.58 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,010$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.3 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…8c07backed Yes | 23c | 1,456$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.32 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,235$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed Yes | 8c | 655.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 20c | 597.5$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.54 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 568.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 558.58$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 7c | 544.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…37e4backed Yes | 25c | 524$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 18c | 493.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 452.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 308.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 5c | 247.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 11c | 241.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 29c | 220$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 16c | 215$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…4a2fbacked Yes | 20c | 195.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 15c | 187.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 61c | 157.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 53c | 148.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…65afbacked Yes | 12c | 147.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 22c | 131.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +593.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x029e…e4e8backed Yes | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…e03ebacked No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 46c | 109.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…7fdbbacked Yes | 47c | 105.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…f164backed No | 57c | 104.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cf…105abacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e8…0fccbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…8e16backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 58c | 60.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…be8cbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ed…82e5backed No | 78c | 56.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 19c | 55.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…e2ffbacked No | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 50.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…28e5backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ab…5fb4backed No | 57c | 46.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 44.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 56c | 41.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…4ee8backed No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 75c | 30.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed No | 76c | 23.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…bfbbbacked No | 68c | 22.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.