NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20e34703ff9cd108247027353b219dc7b5e89b1ac3f0b8a5cc7f311a159cbcf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 2,695$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.52 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 52c | 1,170$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.96 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 678.74$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.72 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 467$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.47 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 457.49$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 43c | 341$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.63 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 313.78$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 56c | 225$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.58 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Under | 46c | 218.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Under | 9c | 199.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 58c | 153$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 58c | 125$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Under | 19c | 121.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 38c | 119$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 46c | 74.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 43c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 43c | 71.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 31c | 58.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Over | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 46c | 31.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Hornets won
- Hornets vs. BucksBucks won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.