NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x901630db7b27d2549e3ff8380679b934125cecbeb0db67e8b6bd1c9379ac0f31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 12,723$6,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,560.54 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 7,157$3,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,649.69 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0352…3292backed Under | 51c | 4,600$2,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,346 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 52c | 1,452$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.01 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 53c | 1,325$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 968.78$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.37 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…aedfbacked Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 51c | 756$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.44 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 600$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…9dcabacked Under | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…e0e7backed Over | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 547.01$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Under | 49c | 500.51$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.25 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.82 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 53c | 471$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.63 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 449$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.5 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b6…2de9backed Under | 55c | 440$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 50c | 336.67$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.34 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 50c | 204.63$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 192$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 52c | 189.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 63c | 171.37$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 55c | 167$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 46c | 130.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 46c | 87.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 80.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 51c | 36.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c8…ded9backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 58c | 33.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 49c | 29.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Over | 50c | 24.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Hornets won
- Hornets vs. BucksBucks won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.