NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed4708ed8e6f01895332e6851664b7f2d92d4a677ee667460ec84e11435e0658
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 52c | 31,978$16,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,380.57 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 13,033$6,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,388.95 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…b736backed Under | 46c | 8,100$3,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,726 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…3393backed Over | 54c | 8,000$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,680 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 6,795$3,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,205.86 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 5,627$2,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,588.26 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 51c | 2,649$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.01 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 2,517$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 48c | 2,406$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.88 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Under | 45c | 1,830$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.5 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Under | 48c | 1,627$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Under | 45c | 1,508$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.6wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 1,019$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.09 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 1,008$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.76 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 1,005$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.35 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 48c | 988$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.24 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 950.83$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.89 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 48c | 900$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 745$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.15 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 524.89$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.94 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 49c | 508.43$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.1 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…e5d7backed Over | 53c | 450$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7448…b4cfbacked Over | 52c | 410$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c19…3ec0backed Under | 48c | 330$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf2…a258backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 293$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.57 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 45c | 163.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 160.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…6ce6backed Under | 46c | 158.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3269…d5b3backed Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Under | 48c | 94.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…797abacked Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 46c | 72.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Over | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba8…b7e3backed Under | 48c | 28.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 51c | 26.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 48c | 22.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Hornets won
- Hornets vs. BucksBucks won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.