NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf08424dcb62f21db7871016ed2fa76f1eef63f1bea5d8b5724cfa161b627df76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Bucks, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Hornets | 53c | 10,384$5,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,880.45 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bucks | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Hornets | 53c | 8,898$4,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,182.12 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 47c | 5,390$2,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,531.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bucks | 47c | 3,719$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.98 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Bucks | 47c | 2,247$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 47c | 1,828$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.5 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks | 47c | 1,426$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.95 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Bucks | 27c | 1,187$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.16 | 163 | 35.6%58 W · 105 L | -12.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Hornets | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hornets | 53c | 590.16$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.15 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 75c | 574.35$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Bucks | 47c | 417$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Hornets | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Hornets | 54c | 366$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.36 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Bucks | 46c | 311.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.52 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Hornets | 54c | 298.78$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.25 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks | 46c | 249$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.64 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Bucks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Bucks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Hornets | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…6df7backed Hornets | 53c | 196.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Hornets | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Hornets | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…dedebacked Hornets | 53c | 107.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Bucks | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Hornets | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hornets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Hornets | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bucks | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…6365backed Hornets | 54c | 81.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Hornets | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Hornets | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Hornets | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Bucks | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Bucks | 46c | 48.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Hornets | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 47c | 43.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Hornets | 49c | 38.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Hornets | 54c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf470…67fdbacked Bucks | 47c | 37.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…99cdbacked Hornets | 55c | 36.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Hornets | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2d…abbabacked Bucks | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…368abacked Hornets | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bucks | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aff…821abacked Bucks | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…d56ebacked Hornets | 55c | 21.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…7f18backed Hornets | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Hornets | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa1…2be3backed Hornets | 55c | 19.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Hornets won
- Hornets vs. BucksBucks won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.