MLB · resolved market

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x210b772ddd039f18f61c06318078131a6cd7646ff5acab02d6dae686844a2ce3

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $172,108
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $172,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,108 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Under	47c	145,921$68,583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68,582.66	469	49%230 W · 239 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Over	53c	100,000$53,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47,000	550	53.1%292 W · 258 L	+20.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over	53c	50,000$26,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23,500	1,385	49.5%685 W · 700 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33d0…f7ebbacked Under	48c	5,460$2,621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,620.63	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ef…e6ddbacked Over	52c	4,307$2,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,067.57	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	53c	4,000$2,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,880	447	49.2%220 W · 227 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	48c	3,513$1,670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,670	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under	47c	2,693$1,266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,265.55	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under	47c	2,500$1,175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,175	752	48.8%367 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over	53c	1,800$948 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$852	958	50%479 W · 479 L	+4.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Under	48c	1,035$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	383	53.8%206 W · 177 L	+16.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over	49c	826.71$402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424.31	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under	47c	600$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282	920	54%497 W · 423 L	+23.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over	53c	567$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.49	1,345	47.7%642 W · 703 L	+10.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under	47c	420$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.4	2,290	51%1,167 W · 1,123 L	+23.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Over	52c	400$208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192	2,104	51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc679…facdbacked Under	47c	380$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.6	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	52c	338.11$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.54	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	67c	323.23$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.29	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	53c	281.88$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.23	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf15b…000fbacked Over	54c	277.78$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.78	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over	51c	268.22$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.43	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	24c	265.98$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.35	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under	48c	210$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	+25.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Over	48c	201.62$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.39	773	53.9%417 W · 356 L	+35.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa65c…509dbacked Over	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	243	50.2%122 W · 121 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under	77c	172$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.22	1,075	58.3%627 W · 448 L	-21.3wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Over	23c	166.72$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.38	2,144	39.6%849 W · 1,295 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Under	9c	125.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	547	15.9%87 W · 460 L	-40.7wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Over	54c	120.72$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.53	243	50.6%123 W · 120 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e46…42dfbacked Over	54c	118.67$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.59	172	50.6%87 W · 85 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over	31c	114.31$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.33	1,147	31.6%362 W · 785 L	-97.5wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Under	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	80	46.3%37 W · 43 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Under	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,197	53.9%645 W · 552 L	+42.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	1,062	49.2%523 W · 539 L	-11.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under	47c	97$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.59	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	55c	93.51$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.77	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	45c	89.72$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.7	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb1…8436backed Under	47c	85.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	276	44.9%124 W · 152 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Over	54c	80.98$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.25	405	54.8%222 W · 183 L	+17.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Over	42c	78.57$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.57	161	44.1%71 W · 90 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	48c	76.31$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.9	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Over	54c	76.28$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.09	586	49.5%290 W · 296 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Under	47c	74.47$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	286	39.2%112 W · 174 L	+11.5wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Over	27c	74.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.46	443	45.6%202 W · 241 L	-10.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Over	54c	73.59$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.85	541	52.1%282 W · 259 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb70…52c0backed Under	51c	68.63$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	174	62.6%109 W · 65 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over	54c	65.61$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.18	1,269	51.1%648 W · 621 L	+23.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under	36c	65.51$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.7	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3186…2a53backed Over	56c	60.48$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.61	94	55.3%52 W · 42 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over	53c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.5	2,376	49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L	+17.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4dd…23ffbacked Under	48c	59.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	394	40.9%161 W · 233 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Over	46c	56$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.17	209	44%92 W · 117 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x820a…8f3fbacked Over	54c	55.56$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.56	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…aa3cbacked Under	47c	53.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	149	46.3%69 W · 80 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9212…4b00backed Under	47c	52.66$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Over	54c	46.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.3	252	56.7%143 W · 109 L	+9.9wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc875…3005backed Over	54c	46.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.3	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa10…065abacked Under	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0469…5eb0backed Under	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	155	49.7%77 W · 78 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…4512backed Under	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Under	45c	40.89$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	778	36%280 W · 498 L	-17.2wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Under	68c	40$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	2,147	50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L	+27.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over	53c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.95	738	49.3%364 W · 374 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87f8…7de3backed Under	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	381	42%160 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Over	51c	39.63$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	1,042	49.4%515 W · 527 L	+13.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad81…d891backed Under	47c	39.62$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under	67c	37.39$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.97	4,381	44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L	+77.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x193a…2b55backed Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	234	55.1%129 W · 105 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…0f05backed Over	54c	33.33$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.33	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Over	54c	29.3$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.48	185	51.4%95 W · 90 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ac…427fbacked Over	53c	29.1$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.68	70	50%35 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Under	47c	28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	391	51.9%203 W · 188 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over	52c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Over	54c	24.35$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.2	515	55.7%287 W · 228 L	+19.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Over	54c	22.67$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.43	314	46.8%147 W · 167 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over	54c	22.48$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.34	1,043	49%511 W · 532 L	+3.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Over	66c	22.32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.53	2,223	55.4%1,231 W · 992 L	+73.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Under	58c	21.65$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	4,169	50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L	+92.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Over	54c	20.67$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.51	271	46.9%127 W · 144 L	-8.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92ed…21dcbacked Over	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Over	53c	19.77$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.29	536	44.6%239 W · 297 L	-11.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	58c	19.58$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	1,865	52%970 W · 895 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under	59c	19.21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	746	57.8%431 W · 315 L	-9.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe246…dedcbacked Over	54c	18.89$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.69	267	53.9%144 W · 123 L	+7.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle MarinersBoston Red Sox won
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle MarinersNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event