MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb71a488686950a42fc5629c3f7711cdfdef336135ecbe6dec911aca85f13ff96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 41c | 3,257$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.63 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 55c | 1,949$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.3 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 59c | 1,420$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.77 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 59c | 984.3$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.74 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…43c8backed Over | 67c | 882.51$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 32c | 853.52$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.7 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Under | 61c | 842.43$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 40c | 710.6$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.3 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 24c | 458.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.08 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 59c | 404.82$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.84 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 40c | 399.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 20c | 319.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.77 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 19c | 283.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.24 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 257.32$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 23c | 195.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 41c | 176.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 39c | 169$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.09 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 60c | 164.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 51c | 160.67$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 59c | 147.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 20c | 128.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 47c | 104.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 52c | 94.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 31c | 84.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 570 | 58.4%333 W · 237 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 61c | 66.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 21c | 56.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 37c | 49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 36c | 41.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 30c | 40.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 76c | 28.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle MarinersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.