Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 42°F or higher on January 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2146bf76a5cb27e10dc2b99cd773744f74a8a04f5900313fb82e28f55efd665e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2ed…db5cbacked Yes | 0c | 14,306$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 79c | 1,544$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.07 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad7…d2fdbacked Yes | 59c | 1,330$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9a…d45cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,192$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41be…2310backed Yes | 2c | 671.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 2c | 504.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 23c | 502.86$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.34 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 2c | 490.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 23c | 410.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.77 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90e…39e3backed Yes | 6c | 324.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb96b…61afbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…5875backed Yes | 6c | 285.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…cde9backed Yes | 6c | 262.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…6199backed Yes | 5c | 256.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 4c | 255.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes | 10c | 213.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…edfbbacked No | 8c | 212.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.54 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…3a8ebacked Yes | 7c | 183.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 32c | 171.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…6b1cbacked No | 54c | 167.3$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.74 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed Yes | 24c | 162.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c451backed No | 9c | 160.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +485.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…437cbacked Yes | 35c | 153.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x009e…6515backed Yes | 19c | 150.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 138.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 74c | 136.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked No | 76c | 119.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…3385backed Yes | 19c | 112.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes | 12c | 102.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed Yes | 80c | 101.97$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…5319backed No | 55c | 96.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 88.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 74c | 88.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…d457backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 64c | 72.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…173dbacked Yes | 22c | 69.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…7af3backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 35c | 47.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…328ebacked No | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 56c | 26.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb0…1527backed No | 53c | 26.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 70c | 20.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed No | 71c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba3…f017backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9607…0f2cbacked Yes | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 42°F or higher on January 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 34-35°F on January 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 36-37°F on January 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 38-39°F on January 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on January 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.