Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2146dd4d3fa6d9a542f867d35bea687b7c51f2c586a9624fe009ea3e9551d898
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 2c | 868.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 46c | 298.31$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.49 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 64c | 269.71$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.91 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 241.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 50c | 238.55$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 147.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 139.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 49c | 129.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 21c | 125$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 121.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 57c | 121$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 53c | 109.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 28c | 91.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 47c | 81.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 80.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 38c | 78.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 61c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 65.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 35c | 65.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 51c | 64.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 21c | 61.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 77c | 60.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 60.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 57.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 18c | 57.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 48c | 57.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 54.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 51c | 53.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 39c | 51.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…6922backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 22c | 48.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 48.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 37c | 46.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 50c | 40.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 49c | 36.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 52c | 35.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 36c | 32.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed No | 49c | 32.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc4…3536backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 51c | 29.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 45c | 28.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 68c | 23.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 23.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 50c | 23.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 80c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec3…acbabacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 19.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.