Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Ajla Tomljanovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2147d142688bd9e7705293cdf265be15b9f950c533cc52a617ae1404c1c03e16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tomljanovicof Starodubtseva, Tomljanovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Starodubtseva | 54c | 3,881$2,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.34 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Starodubtseva | 1c | 3,715$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da8…e5afbacked Tomljanovic | 46c | 3,294$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tomljanovic | 60c | 3,062$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.54 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Starodubtseva | 56c | 2,780$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.05 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Starodubtseva | 47c | 2,437$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.37 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Tomljanovic | 51c | 2,017$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.53 | 447 | 54.4%243 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Tomljanovic | 53c | 1,964$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.9 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Starodubtseva | 57c | 1,743$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.79 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Tomljanovic | 43c | 1,504$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.34 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Starodubtseva | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Tomljanovic | 55c | 952.5$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.62 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Starodubtseva | 44c | 910$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Starodubtseva | 44c | 680.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.62 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Starodubtseva | 48c | 522.63$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.71 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…52b5backed Starodubtseva | 72c | 490.8$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.12 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Tomljanovic | 40c | 391.44$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.08 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Starodubtseva | 49c | 381.63$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…c5c9backed Starodubtseva | 26c | 369.92$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tomljanovic | 52c | 302.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.44 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee7…fdf6backed Tomljanovic | 56c | 298$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Tomljanovic | 34c | 270$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 161 | 33.5%54 W · 107 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Tomljanovic | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Tomljanovic | 46c | 208.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.66 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Starodubtseva | 51c | 159.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Starodubtseva | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Tomljanovic | 43c | 141.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.04 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Tomljanovic | 56c | 124.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Starodubtseva | 55c | 105.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Starodubtseva | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 219 | 49.3%108 W · 111 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Starodubtseva | 44c | 96.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Tomljanovic | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…8bc6backed Starodubtseva | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Tomljanovic | 53c | 83.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Tomljanovic | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 197 | 44.2%87 W · 110 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…f39abacked Starodubtseva | 51c | 58.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 606 | 61.2%371 W · 235 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Starodubtseva | 48c | 57.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Tomljanovic | 39c | 53.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Starodubtseva | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Starodubtseva | 46c | 51.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…8065backed Starodubtseva | 58c | 50.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Starodubtseva | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Starodubtseva | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Starodubtseva | 42c | 49.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Tomljanovic | 55c | 47.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…5a53backed Starodubtseva | 46c | 47.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tomljanovic | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…8115backed Tomljanovic | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Starodubtseva | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Tomljanovic | 42c | 42.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…9654backed Starodubtseva | 30c | 39.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Tomljanovic | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…c3c9backed Starodubtseva | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Starodubtseva | 42c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Tomljanovic | 56c | 28.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…6215backed Starodubtseva | 59c | 27.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tomljanovic | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0d03backed Starodubtseva | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 166 | 57.8%96 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Tomljanovic | 47c | 21.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…8b5dbacked Starodubtseva | 65c | 21.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0d…5087backed Starodubtseva | 62c | 20.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…7426backed Tomljanovic | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…cd9ebacked Starodubtseva | 65c | 15.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Ajla Tomljanovicthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Starodubtseva vs TomljanovicStarodubtseva won
- Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Starodubtseva (+1.5)Starodubtseva won
- Starodubtseva vs. Tomljanovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.