NFL · resolved market
Broncos vs. Jets: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x215355ad5b49ec558efb38609d416e0e8e40146130974bba50fbfa17a0e2735e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $235,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Under | 50c | 150,428$75,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75,214.07 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 141,030$70,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,515 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,799.99 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 59c | 17,705$10,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,427.77 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 11,312$5,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,655.88 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 49c | 10,100$4,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,949 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 10,000$5,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,940.3 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Over | 49c | 6,510$3,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,190.1 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 45c | 4,638$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,528.87 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 43c | 4,401$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.83 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 51c | 3,045$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…a9f2backed Under | 50c | 2,800$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Over | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 49c | 2,128$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.95 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 1c | 2,104$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,082.96 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 1,604$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.07 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Over | 49c | 1,358$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.61 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf390…79efbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 50c | 900$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 46c | 787$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.85 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 49c | 688.1$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.36 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 667.23$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.72 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Over | 51c | 625$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.78 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…73b7backed Under | 51c | 539.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…5dbabacked Over | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 52c | 468.85$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.65 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 51c | 380$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.2 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 45c | 312.09$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.52 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…e8d0backed Under | 51c | 292$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.87 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Over | 50c | 291.32$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 162 | 75.3%122 W · 40 L | +17.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Over | 49c | 271$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.79 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Under | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 204.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.54 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 50c | 198.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 53c | 164.81$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…a1debacked Under | 56c | 160$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ead…3381backed Under | 51c | 122.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c33…e3aebacked Over | 51c | 113.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…a45abacked Over | 50c | 100.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4689…c1b3backed Under | 51c | 98.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeeb…645fbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Over | 51c | 82.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e7…9e61backed Over | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Over | 49c | 30.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Over | 51c | 29.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 23.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…8dd6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…31bbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…931cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Broncos vs. Jets: O/U 43.5this page
- Broncos vs. JetsBroncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-7.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.