South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-08-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21dcd23f076b3993a75aab0d018d2766932244c069176e017690426cb10747f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 8c | 9,282$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.77 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 1c | 8,722$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked No | 16c | 7,447$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.44 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 15c | 6,426$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.96 | 198 | 41.9%83 W · 115 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 8c | 6,141$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.05 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cec…4043backed No | 14c | 3,062$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…3ddcbacked No | 7c | 1,572$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.41 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…83a8backed No | 8c | 1,250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed No | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked No | 2c | 1,122$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 90 | 32.2%29 W · 61 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7628…eb57backed No | 1c | 1,050$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 4c | 1,014$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…97cfbacked No | 19c | 789.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -70%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…f046backed No | 19c | 669.4$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…2791backed No | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 5c | 541.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 7c | 527.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked No | 2c | 510$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 3c | 504$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…2d5bbacked No | 6c | 413.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 7c | 382.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed No | 15c | 340.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 216 | 38.4%83 W · 133 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed No | 15c | 327$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…2fc0backed No | 9c | 320.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 13c | 302.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed No | 11c | 277.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 13c | 255.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 1,303 | 50.1%653 W · 650 L | -14.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked No | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked No | 8c | 172$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 24c | 164.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 425 | 62.4%265 W · 160 L | +25.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 8c | 158.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…3e21backed No | 12c | 143.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b9…3964backed No | 12c | 119.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 14c | 116.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 18c | 107.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 22c | 100.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 16c | 98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 72c | 76.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f38…13c8backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-08-20?this page
- Will Botafogo FR vs. CS Cienciano end in a draw?No won
- Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-08-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.