Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21f2184855a3a785d6ac3b661b23040c036a49ca53efcb3c17797c1eb67b3ff4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 56c | 1,191$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.69 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 28c | 312.29$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 76c | 273.03$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 48c | 271.22$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.91 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 230.63$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 212.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 202.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 200.75$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 44c | 179.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885b…4b09backed Yes | 73c | 167.73$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 163.95$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 150.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 70c | 135.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 132.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 125.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 73c | 122.77$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 41c | 120.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 25c | 113.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 104.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 49c | 101.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 40c | 89.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 47c | 86.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 83.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 29c | 82.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 67c | 74.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 79c | 70.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 61c | 69.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 69.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 68.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 38c | 67.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 77c | 61.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 42c | 59.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 50c | 59.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 53c | 57.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 67c | 56.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 59c | 55.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 52.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 80c | 49.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 41c | 48.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 48.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 52c | 47.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 39c | 47.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed No | 57c | 44.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed No | 60c | 44.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 68c | 36.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 58c | 34.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed Yes | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3225…d1cfbacked Yes | 40c | 33.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 49c | 32.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 32.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 51c | 31.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 41c | 30.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 69c | 30.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 43c | 30.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 41c | 29.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb879…aa96backed Yes | 71c | 28.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 44c | 27.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 42c | 26.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 50c | 26.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 62c | 26.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 46c | 25.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed No | 44c | 25.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…3a02backed Yes | 69c | 24.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e3…f73fbacked No | 46c | 22.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 54c | 22.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 48c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 59c | 21.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 51c | 20.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e6…ab8abacked Yes | 49c | 20.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 63c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 53c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…4f1fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 60c | 19.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.