World Politics · resolved market
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 64-66%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2249ef8dbcc240f2b83fa00c2423372bbf8f089ede0a32c8bccfbe28743c33f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7250…c815backed Yes | 2c | 16,288$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 2c | 15,583$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.33 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…0d37backed Yes | 2c | 14,641$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 14,144$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…809bbacked Yes | 13c | 11,643$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 1c | 11,352$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 10,989$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…0c33backed Yes | 0c | 10,028$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 7,856$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 6,080$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea43…828bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,681$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 3,394$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 2,437$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 4c | 2,402$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…546ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…567ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,804$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 2c | 1,669$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 1c | 1,430$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,371$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 4c | 1,290$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4726…82d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,277$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked Yes | 1c | 1,054$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 2c | 1,050$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…e4a8backed Yes | 4c | 914.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 757.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0abf…c427backed Yes | 1c | 737.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…f71abacked Yes | 2c | 689.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 665.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…583abacked Yes | 3c | 635.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 19cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d37…bc04backed Yes | 8c | 576.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…0c73backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes | 3c | 496.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd39d…00bcbacked Yes | 3c | 451.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 6c | 349.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…ea07backed Yes | 3c | 339$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 9c | 270.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +340%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 64-66%?this page
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 62-64%?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 66-68%?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 68-70%?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 70-72%?Yes won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be less than 62%?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be more than 72%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.