Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22581301c197475ff092a4faf3f715e203e731e365b3c0098409a08a51b2c5c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof Tundra Esports, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked 1win | 44c | 6,500$2,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,640 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…5eeebacked 1win | 42c | 5,103$2,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,938.68 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4e…9516backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 3,121$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 2,128$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.72 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 1,947$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.31 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed 1win | 44c | 1,750$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.04 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 1,750$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 1,085$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.44 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5e…1468backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 881.22$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.48 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 515.33$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.89 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Tundra Esports | 43c | 305.96$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Tundra Esports | 63c | 299.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed 1win | 43c | 299.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.99 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 230.52$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 201.24$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.33 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed 1win | 35c | 145.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Tundra Esports | 56c | 127$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Tundra Esports | 45c | 117.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked 1win | 44c | 103.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked 1win | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed 1win | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 89.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…1865backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 69.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed 1win | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 58.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed 1win | 40c | 45.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked 1win | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed 1win | 38c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf119…dde9backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…2f43backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 33.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 395 | 59%233 W · 162 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed 1win | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bb…cad6backed 1win | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed 1win | 40c | 26.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…93b0backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs1win won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.