Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jon Bonck be the Republican Nominee for TX-38?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x226fb2b3a531a7f09ce74c6459f3bc85963c781a1282c38e38a30d6047fe6fb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 15c | 908$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 18c | 821$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 54c | 682$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 16c | 651$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 15c | 461$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 46c | 446$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 18c | 414$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked No | 15c | 403$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed No | 17c | 307$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 46c | 225$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed No | 17c | 218$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 6c | 209.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 7c | 205.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 166.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 24c | 153.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 14c | 146.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 51c | 111.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 77c | 99.82$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 40c | 74.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 58c | 74.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 31c | 72.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…57eebacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked Yes | 79c | 22.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jon Bonck be the Republican Nominee for TX-38?this page
- Will Shelly deZevallos be the Republican Nominee for TX-38?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.