Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2294a9eb03c8a82dc18ac9e82c62db42ce87e8841c06b01aba65aa3d2d6b0fbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro | 19c | 13,705$2,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,586.68 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Virtus.pro | 19c | 6,930$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.09 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro | 21c | 6,424$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.39 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Virtus.pro | 52c | 4,841$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…d2b3backed Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 3,979$2,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.25 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed Virtus.pro | 15c | 3,864$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.04 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Virtus.pro | 28c | 3,600$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.1 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Virtus.pro | 55c | 1,600$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 1,328$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.28 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 1,060$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.6 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Virtus.pro | 44c | 998$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.12 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Virtus.pro | 24c | 894.12$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Virtus.pro | 19c | 729.29$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.57 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f3…8cbdbacked Virtus.pro | 57c | 706.69$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Virtus.pro | 35c | 569.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…cc32backed Virtus.pro | 44c | 454.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Virtus.pro | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5fbabacked Virtus.pro | 52c | 384.81$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.95 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf494…10a8backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 336.19$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Virtus.pro | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Virtus.pro | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…71c5backed Virtus.pro | 14c | 235.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Virtus.pro | 48c | 228.38$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Virtus.pro | 53c | 225.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Virtus.pro | 29c | 187.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Virtus.pro | 13c | 185.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Virtus.pro | 31c | 170.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 137.37$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 123.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…d267backed Virtus.pro | 21c | 110.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Virtus.pro | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…bdd8backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 95.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Virtus.pro | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…8459backed Virtus.pro | 17c | 71.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e10…e039backed Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…8b6cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…6330backed Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae2…47fdbacked Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1051…6607backed Xtreme Gaming | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Virtus.pro | 38c | 30.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed Virtus.pro | 49c | 20.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Virtus.pro | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3)Virtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.