Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22983cbb5cec8f986df8a5fb8335d6f0f1d3df2eedab167befa2dcf9b3ec6f60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 1,829$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.03 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 580.64$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.14 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 34c | 406.28$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.55 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 19c | 297.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 276.6$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 22c | 224.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 53c | 201.97$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 184.83$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 59c | 181.63$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 169.43$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 47c | 109$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 95.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 89.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 47c | 82.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 58c | 76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 46c | 73.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 70.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 43c | 70.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 69.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 60c | 65.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 59.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 53.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 51.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 46.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 40.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 37c | 40.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 40.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…140fbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 44c | 30.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 27.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 26.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 66c | 25.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 40c | 25.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 25.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 50c | 23.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 21.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 60c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked No | 55c | 18.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.