Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23a5520029f0bcddcc59d36c4c0e43bd2ab7b1a020c462f89df51e9fb60ff426
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 669.43$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 38c | 638.82$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.03 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 7c | 375$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 24c | 356$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.46 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 336$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 327.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.38 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 11c | 320.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 57c | 293.93$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.34 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 282.35$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed No | 10c | 210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 50c | 184.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 35c | 177.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 69c | 145.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 60c | 140.09$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 138.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 58c | 133.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 38c | 128.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 127.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 73c | 119$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 104$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 97.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 97.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 97.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 39c | 89.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 23c | 86.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 25c | 86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 79c | 78.83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3db…f112backed Yes | 28c | 71.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 70.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…558fbacked Yes | 34c | 68.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 15c | 68.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5479…4bfabacked Yes | 34c | 67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +256%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 52c | 60.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 55c | 60.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 68c | 58.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7201…e62bbacked Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 49.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 40c | 48.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f23…1810backed No | 66c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 60c | 47.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 36c | 45.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed Yes | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 44.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 42.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…ecc4backed Yes | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 29c | 41.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 30c | 41.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 40.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 48c | 40.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3059…a423backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 32c | 39.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…ff97backed Yes | 37c | 38.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked No | 54c | 36.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 36.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 66c | 36.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 41c | 36.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea4…4a77backed Yes | 63c | 35.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 38c | 35.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x059f…d749backed No | 44c | 34.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 34.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…59febacked No | 66c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 33.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 47c | 31.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 65c | 30.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6432…f918backed Yes | 78c | 28.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 54c | 27.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 61c | 27.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 39c | 26.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 21.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…1a8dbacked Yes | 53c | 19.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 53c | 19.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 67c | 17.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed No | 66c | 17.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 67c | 15.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.