Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f16d5b6000c5a8fba261c5473a8f2a5d99d8c6ec551c1aa59b10ca300b3fe7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,556$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 62c | 711.5$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.5 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 617.27$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 41c | 586.56$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.54 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d8…7fbbbacked Yes | 3c | 519.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 42c | 438.42$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.51 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 415.12$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 39c | 410.63$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 14c | 400$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 9c | 348$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.44 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 69c | 321.5$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.17 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 64c | 291.26$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.86 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3db…f112backed Yes | 37c | 272.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 256.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 38c | 245.16$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.81 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed No | 18c | 241.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.49 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 219.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 206.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 7c | 199.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.51 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 57c | 194.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 42c | 187.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 54c | 185.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 32c | 182.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 78c | 164.11$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 43c | 144.06$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 46c | 120$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 40c | 119.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 42c | 117.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 116.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 104$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked No | 36c | 103.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 71c | 98.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 97.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 73c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 27c | 93.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 15c | 88.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 28c | 85.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 35c | 85.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 82.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 29c | 82.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 33c | 77.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed No | 68c | 73.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 64c | 71.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 69.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 68.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed No | 46c | 65.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 60c | 64.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b63…bd8cbacked Yes | 80c | 62.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 64c | 60.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 46c | 56.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 19c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 66c | 53.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 60c | 52.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 50.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 55c | 49.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…c697backed Yes | 42c | 47.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 46.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 72c | 46.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 62c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 60c | 43.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 32c | 43.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 46c | 42.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 41.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 36c | 40.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 28c | 39.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 39.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 28c | 36.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…a594backed No | 65c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 59c | 30.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…159ebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 28.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 36c | 28.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 57c | 27.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 42c | 27.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 72c | 27.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 40c | 25.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 75c | 25.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ac…cb6ebacked No | 59c | 24.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 65c | 24.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 58c | 22.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185a…9beabacked Yes | 50c | 22.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 21.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.