Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23a7d64d86979463ea3ebbb1315da08dc98916a597d638b8d78cac41a0bbd0ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa18c…d792backed Under | 56c | 15,936$8,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,916.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 9,990$4,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,543.22 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 5,178$2,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.59 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 9c | 2,872$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.63 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 42c | 2,530$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.07 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 986.79$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.81 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 58c | 866.38$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.25 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 42c | 758.48$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.92 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 605.5$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.08 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 599.46$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.73 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef57…827dbacked Over | 37c | 354.97$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.63 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 59c | 309.55$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.63 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 45c | 307$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 59c | 235.5$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 62c | 215$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.4 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 39c | 192.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.93 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 58c | 161$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Under | 58c | 81.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 66c | 77.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed Over | 73c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 64.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 30c | 55.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Over | 45c | 51.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 55c | 45.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 29.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6c…5679backed Under | 57c | 28.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 63c | 28.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 45c | 25.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 69c | 23.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee92…7ec3backed Under | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 77c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: FC Nordsjælland O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: KF Valur O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: KF Valur O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: Team to AdvanceFC Nordsjælland won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-1.5)FC Nordsjælland won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-2.5)FC Nordsjælland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.