Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ceb1a3498c3c15e2a13eabb79a03e143cc03dfe92b7de06045e096682d2a8bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Over | 59c | 3,469$2,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.8 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 2,332$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.4 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c81…98b7backed Over | 59c | 1,195$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 42c | 969.26$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.3 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 42c | 900.8$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.38 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…7656backed Over | 69c | 872.22$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.22 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 40c | 791.24$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.73 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 62c | 764.14$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.53 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 695.18$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.28 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 41c | 621.83$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.96 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 38c | 456.54$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.09 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 56c | 362.25$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.06 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 24c | 349.84$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under | 49c | 337.78$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.97 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 62c | 321$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.03 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 60c | 319.01$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.42 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 39c | 282.59$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 41c | 197.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…9490backed Under | 6c | 190.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Over | 62c | 145.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 13c | 136.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 112$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 100.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked Over | 54c | 100.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 34c | 96.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 62c | 78.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 44c | 78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 51c | 59.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 54c | 54.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 44c | 53.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 40c | 44.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…e2eabacked Under | 43c | 42.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 44c | 38.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 43c | 34.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Under | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 30.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 44c | 25.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Under | 39c | 25.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Over | 47c | 25.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Over | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d7…fcbbbacked Over | 58c | 21.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9707…6fbdbacked Over | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: FC Nordsjælland O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: KF Valur O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: KF Valur O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Nordsjælland vs. KF Valur: Team to AdvanceFC Nordsjælland won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-1.5)FC Nordsjælland won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-2.5)FC Nordsjælland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.