MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23cc1d9fbf84ea7d975c2982b8104aa4c63299f3cecde832634970658ce50c66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 53c | 20,432$10,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,831.78 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 78c | 13,314$10,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,334.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 6,342$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,380.05 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 73c | 4,043$2,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,959.05 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…3fb8backed Under | 6c | 4,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 49c | 2,976$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.59 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 42c | 2,250$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.99 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 62c | 1,830$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.55 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 1,782$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 78c | 1,407$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.36 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 1,333$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 43c | 1,298$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.69 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 42c | 1,059$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.32 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 46c | 984.79$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.3 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 78c | 966.23$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.86 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 889.89$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.57 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 73c | 784$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.56 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 601$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.27 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 59c | 390.53$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.48 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 56c | 375.72$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.69 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…a577backed Under | 63c | 364.38$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 73c | 298.22$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.86 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 59c | 272.11$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.07 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 268.16$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 55c | 239$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.55 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 55c | 220.34$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.19 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 38c | 210.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.07 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 38c | 184.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.51 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 48c | 173$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 166.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Over | 43c | 135.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 38c | 131.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 57c | 121.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 55c | 106.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 46c | 75.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 66.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 41c | 61.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 49c | 61.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 54c | 56.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…88a5backed Under | 59c | 52.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 47c | 51.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked Over | 46c | 48.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 42c | 46.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 42c | 44.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 59c | 38.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 31c | 36.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 37c | 34.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 57c | 30.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 54c | 28.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 36c | 27.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 46c | 27.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…c130backed Over | 54c | 25.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Under | 78c | 21.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Under | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.