MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33eb9bac1e9cbe915f7b9fc8f77d2925e2f480c24b0cb10f5fb2c47c6fcfe09b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 2,065$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.56 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 50c | 1,172$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.52 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 52c | 980.98$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.24 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 22c | 962.78$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.52 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 827.06$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.48 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Miami Marlins | 79c | 745$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.45 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 679.4$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.95 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 662.13$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.25 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 603.47$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.36 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…47f6backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 420$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 311.84$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 27c | 163.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 140.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 126$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 118.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 110.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Washington Nationals | 21c | 99.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Washington Nationals | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…25e7backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 61.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 58.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 55.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Washington Nationals | 28c | 43.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 24.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 19.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.