MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71c2581e34bb92ebef2a625f56b303cce418a4c6a0409a0d55f2aa9451fe0048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 1,068$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.29 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 70c | 917.07$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 55c | 890.93$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.62 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 51c | 777.21$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.7 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 39c | 749.5$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.43 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 618$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 32c | 480$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 421.33$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.71 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 56c | 413.45$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.23 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 53c | 400.47$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.3 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 45c | 310$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.56 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 63c | 239.07$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 59c | 220.34$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 46c | 218.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.73 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 47c | 209.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Under | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 48c | 151.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 55c | 125$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 50c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 49c | 119.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 54c | 116.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 59c | 111.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 44c | 95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 65c | 89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Under | 55c | 87.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 27c | 80.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…0a3fbacked Over | 27c | 80.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 77.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 30c | 72.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 48c | 65.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 52c | 47.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 52c | 44.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 57c | 41.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 52c | 40.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 46c | 33.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 44c | 29.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 46c | 24.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked Under | 57c | 19.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae64…180ebacked Under | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 63c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.