MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb22f21cf4665b487dc2ffdcf84362d21e3c165f98532555b2948ce9e87196b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 7,938$3,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,091.33 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 7,777$4,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,033.03 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 6,090$3,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,436 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 2,758$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.02 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 2,221$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.4 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 2,000$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.19 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 1,609$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 999.07$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.99 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 822.86$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.83 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 696.2$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 671$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.41 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 523.76$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.5 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 497.83$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.83 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…dccabacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 496.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.44 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…3c33backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 495.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 408.6$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 373.14$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.48 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed Washington Nationals | 28c | 356.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 24c | 350.94$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 341.9$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.34 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 262.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.39 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…391fbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 211.61$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 78c | 205.31$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Washington Nationals | 26c | 175$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…298dbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 137.57$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…a912backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 129.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9489…37d8backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 128.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…77a2backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 126.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…81cebacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 122.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1f…f56ebacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 115.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 115.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af7…1af0backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 102.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc3…f5ffbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 101.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Washington Nationals | 28c | 99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…bf48backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 96.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…3863backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 95.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3b…08d3backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 95.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab0…3e95backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 83.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 80.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc85…648ebacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 78.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e23ebacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 78.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Washington Nationals | 29c | 66.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa08f…9d13backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 65.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7df…8ecebacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 54.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 49.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 48.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 48.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 77c | 43.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 25.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc126…60aebacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 18.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.