Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23d1257726e28aad1dafda0a267888d55d31ed420068c6eb3836275f2cc44e2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 52c | 1,668$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.96 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,215$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.26 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 1,062$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.14 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 529.22$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 49c | 511$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.03 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 459.99$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 63c | 430.22$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.04 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 37c | 422.01$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.71 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 48c | 403.79$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.88 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 60c | 340$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.6 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 4c | 326.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 300.12$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.39 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 246$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 49c | 209.88$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 38c | 190.84$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 58c | 173.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 46c | 167.78$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 48c | 163$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 48c | 144.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 128.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 64c | 120.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 40c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 47c | 108$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 102.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 62c | 101.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 100.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 58c | 95.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 64c | 87.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 86.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 22c | 85.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 68c | 82.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 81.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 49c | 81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 80.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 48c | 74.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 68c | 71.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 42c | 68.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 66.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 36c | 65.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 41c | 61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 69c | 59.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 57.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 29c | 57.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 63c | 55.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 54.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 46c | 53.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 47c | 53.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 41c | 52.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 37c | 52.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 44c | 51.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 51.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 50.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 46c | 50.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 51c | 50.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed Yes | 46c | 50.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 34c | 48.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 36c | 45.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 48c | 42.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 51c | 40.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 42c | 39.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 35.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 35.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 76c | 32.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 31.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 30.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2532…52b6backed Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 58c | 20.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…1b2bbacked No | 58c | 19.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 66c | 18.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 15.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.