MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23d5748713d86f6cead6020be7a77c2a2fb067bf88b0f7eb887e16b80b483d51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Over | 40c | 10,831$4,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,498.57 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 60c | 7,780$4,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,667.16 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 58c | 3,610$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,102.12 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 41c | 3,318$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.17 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 45c | 1,787$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.16 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 49c | 1,525$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.65 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 1,354$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.59 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e9f4backed Under | 61c | 1,270$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.44 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.48 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 55c | 692.74$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.47 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 39c | 611.76$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.17 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 59c | 604.83$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.85 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed Under | 61c | 585.96$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.44 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 40c | 481.76$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.06 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 41c | 470.54$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.62 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 59c | 446.37$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.36 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Under | 46c | 420.7$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.52 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 415$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 58c | 323.79$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.8 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Under | 45c | 322.33$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.05 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 43c | 319.66$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.63 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 55c | 313.74$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 58c | 306.45$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.74 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 272.09$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 23c | 259.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 42c | 244.82$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 21c | 209.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 40c | 174.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 61c | 152.16$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 57c | 122.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…6df9backed Over | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac3…c369backed Over | 39c | 111.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 60c | 92.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 48c | 83.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 44c | 82.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…3a77backed Under | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Under | 61c | 73.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 57c | 73.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 61c | 70.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 60c | 67.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 50c | 59.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 70c | 54.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…5891backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 56c | 48.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…282dbacked Over | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…dd6bbacked Over | 45c | 39.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 51c | 34.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 57c | 33.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…3bc3backed Under | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 57c | 29.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Over | 40c | 29.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 56c | 28.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 54c | 21.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd1…7e42backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 57c | 19.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 57c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 61c | 16.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland GuardiansHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-5.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.