MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f33749d75acde6ad7f2ee93e1a4f64d951fabfae8cf674ae10c90745d298210
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x623b…8facbacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 1,825$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Houston Astros | 48c | 1,006$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.23 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Houston Astros | 53c | 768.21$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.25 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 498.2$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.1 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros | 43c | 492.73$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.43 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Houston Astros | 35c | 369.43$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.66 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 281.53$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.61 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Houston Astros | 44c | 260.09$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.75 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Houston Astros | 46c | 165.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 150.39$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Houston Astros | 34c | 143.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 121.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 120.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 102.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 59c | 90.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 89.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 66c | 83.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 34c | 72.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Houston Astros | 35c | 57.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Houston Astros | 35c | 54.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 47.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 44.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Houston Astros | 50c | 43.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 43.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 42.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Houston Astros | 35c | 41.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Houston Astros | 35c | 35.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 35.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Houston Astros | 32c | 34.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 47c | 32.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 26.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 25.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…1a0dbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 24.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 20.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 20.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 19.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Houston Astros | 78c | 12.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 84 | 84.5%71 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland GuardiansHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-5.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.