MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35d9adebb1df6d36a207c4893d28d792dc6beff557b0de124f63de866d9d992f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 1,902$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.85 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…1f1ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 1,874$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.98 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…dd23backed Houston Astros | 64c | 1,848$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.17 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 69c | 1,545$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.01 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 1,300$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 1,140$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 732.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.13 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 79c | 672.34$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 63c | 659.6$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.35 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Houston Astros | 63c | 560$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.2 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 503.21$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.59 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Cleveland Guardians | 17c | 440.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 440$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Houston Astros | 65c | 433.73$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.81 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 397$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.89 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 374.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 66c | 320.48$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.95 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Houston Astros | 63c | 299.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 295.27$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 275.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 63c | 273.54$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.21 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 270.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 245.3$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Houston Astros | 65c | 228.56$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros | 68c | 191.26$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 188.16$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 182.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Houston Astros | 69c | 156.32$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 156.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Houston Astros | 67c | 152.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Houston Astros | 66c | 130.29$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 126.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros | 69c | 119.21$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Houston Astros | 72c | 116.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 108.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Houston Astros | 62c | 89.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…ae72backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 88.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 80.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Houston Astros | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Houston Astros | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 71.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 71.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 69.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 69.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Houston Astros | 64c | 68.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 62.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 58.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 48.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 42.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 41.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5281…bdd8backed Houston Astros | 63c | 39.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 64c | 33.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Houston Astros | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Houston Astros | 80c | 28.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d010backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Houston Astros | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Houston Astros | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Houston Astros | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Houston Astros | 65c | 15.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed Houston Astros | 78c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland GuardiansHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-5.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.