MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23de070f6191fae97538c99063a520c2968cecc03dd845ee75008bc8797ad173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 12,751$5,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,865.59 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 12,000$6,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,520 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 50c | 7,210$3,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,606.94 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 6,002$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.92 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 2,921$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.67 | 356 | 43.5%155 W · 201 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 1,401$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.25 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 896.86$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.43 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 783$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.84 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 579.73$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.52 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 511.81$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.55 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 341$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.27 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 319.66$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.04 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 310.85$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.21 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 289$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.34 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…71e4backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 230.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 212.04$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.66 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 145.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 97.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 92.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 73.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 71.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 516 | 46.9%242 W · 274 L | -21.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 57.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 53.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles | 27c | 52.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 45.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 195 | 49.2%96 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 45.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 41.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 32.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a6…6684backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 55 | 81.8%45 W · 10 L | +11.4wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 28.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…c092backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 24.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f0…780abacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Washington Nationals | 68c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.