MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf477d02a60688e68cd6df4e52f3bb96b8265b17d5caf60360005e533c2a30f08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 66c | 67,668$44,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,420.87 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 36,203$12,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,893.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 35c | 16,475$5,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,695.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 13,094$5,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,979.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Over | 49c | 6,814$3,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,475.36 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 6,810$3,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,473.06 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 52c | 3,054$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.06 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 37c | 1,793$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.48 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 55c | 1,275$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.46 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 46c | 1,259$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.89 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 45c | 1,007$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.85 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Under | 49c | 948.88$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.03 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 47c | 947.72$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.29 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…0a3fbacked Under | 49c | 718.49$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.06 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 674.66$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 48c | 588.97$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.26 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Under | 48c | 554.41$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 333.74$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.29 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 42c | 311.43$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.93 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 309.3$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.02 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 46c | 301.96$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.06 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 52c | 295$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Under | 48c | 276.85$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.47 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 43c | 271.68$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 76c | 236$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 220$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 39c | 214$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.66 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 43c | 199.44$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 60c | 197.66$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 49c | 189.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 57c | 173.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 47c | 148.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 61c | 148.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 48c | 139.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 52c | 118$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 11c | 110.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 38c | 87.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 54c | 79.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 34c | 65.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 54c | 64.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 49c | 59.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 52.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…10e8backed Over | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 57c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Over | 48c | 47.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 56c | 39.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 36.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…5382backed Over | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Over | 41c | 34.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 37c | 32.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 36c | 30.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 52c | 30.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 46c | 30.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 47c | 30.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 46c | 28.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 48c | 21.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Under | 53c | 19.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 59c | 17.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.