Token Launches · resolved market
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $25-30b one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23e9b4519db3e16e0b0550bc24fbc3568bf8753f92b72f34fbe5dd69c759737d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $529,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $529,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdba6…0218backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 32,631$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…8a63backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…3221backed Yes | 0c | 12,657$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f07…853abacked Yes | 0c | 7,422$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6309…14e5backed Yes | 0c | 7,344$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe5…9b93backed Yes | 0c | 7,256$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…9c07backed Yes | 0c | 7,254$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e49…a9aabacked Yes | 0c | 7,240$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…bf52backed Yes | 0c | 6,574$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…cac4backed Yes | 0c | 6,493$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f79…eaefbacked Yes | 0c | 6,435$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 1c | 6,359$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa037…4328backed Yes | 0c | 6,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb8…e31dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba83…7835backed Yes | 0c | 6,080$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb1…aeb9backed Yes | 0c | 6,054$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…4b62backed Yes | 0c | 6,043$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…295dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,988$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…28e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,935$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5d…f758backed Yes | 0c | 5,920$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,907$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22d…9abfbacked Yes | 0c | 5,621$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9e…1cfcbacked Yes | 0c | 5,592$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…494bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,561$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb214…1144backed Yes | 0c | 5,553$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11be…4b0cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,483$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…f091backed Yes | 0c | 5,476$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…1449backed Yes | 0c | 5,465$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…13afbacked Yes | 0c | 5,406$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 0c | 4,622$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a1…b22ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,414$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Yes | 0c | 3,556$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2898…d183backed Yes | 1c | 3,411$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…7469backed Yes | 1c | 3,307$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,467$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…e24ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,017$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…4199backed Yes | 17c | 1,600$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…bf92backed Yes | 1c | 1,461$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…556ebacked Yes | 4c | 540.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…b995backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $25-30b one day after launch?this page
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch?Yes won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $10-15b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $15-20b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $20-25b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $30-35b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $35-40b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) greater than $40b one day after launch?No won
- No Eigenlayer token launch in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.