Token Launches · resolved market
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $15-20b one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde82a1246df499d884ffb9387371e6e4377a8f78b9b386d1a6b2f34f823e7fa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $527,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $349,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $527,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdba6…0218backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3028…58ecbacked Yes | 0c | 68,857$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 47,016$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.93 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Yes | 3c | 40,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…8a63backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 11,350$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,013$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a1…b22ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,827$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…c564backed Yes | 1c | 5,846$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 5,287$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.73 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2b…a4eebacked Yes | 2c | 5,269$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef48…ef15backed Yes | 5c | 5,102$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9e96backed Yes | 3c | 4,297$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…7469backed Yes | 5c | 3,278$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b11…8535backed Yes | 1c | 3,112$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…629ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,659$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…2a8dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…f74dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,206$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…8e55backed Yes | 1c | 1,989$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…f0b6backed Yes | 1c | 1,987$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2898…d183backed Yes | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,762$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f06…d330backed Yes | 1c | 1,719$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,611$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb017…a4f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,604$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b42…b0c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc06f…b833backed Yes | 1c | 1,132$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…a4e3backed Yes | 2c | 1,033$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 4c | 925.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…bf92backed Yes | 3c | 738.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…711bbacked Yes | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…724cbacked Yes | 16c | 637.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0adf…d197backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…54c2backed Yes | 22c | 462.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…0064backed Yes | 3c | 370.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 6c | 356.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed Yes | 10c | 314$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…be17backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d20…f0aebacked Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…1f21backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…adf4backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…a508backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…9ba7backed Yes | 21c | 285.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…7404backed Yes | 20c | 238.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c01…67f8backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…3f02backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…3718backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8601…88d2backed Yes | 9c | 189.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…aed5backed Yes | 9c | 161.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5771backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…341dbacked Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429f…17bcbacked Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…32c5backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…c317backed Yes | 15c | 111.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad4…8413backed Yes | 18c | 104.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…5d4abacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb2…1f6cbacked Yes | 20c | 98.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0196…1dd6backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda5a…d9d4backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d7…d2e6backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b07…41d0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…168ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $15-20b one day after launch?this page
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch?Yes won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $10-15b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $20-25b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $25-30b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $30-35b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $35-40b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) greater than $40b one day after launch?No won
- No Eigenlayer token launch in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.