Token Launches · resolved market
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $35-40b one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49840b617c32858f786529168a3bf4424e31935ce415550e4cfd1af3d8c511e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,714,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,714,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdba6…0218backed Yes | 0c | 99,995$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f75…dc9abacked Yes | 0c | 53,997$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…a95ebacked Yes | 0c | 53,108$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…9c43backed Yes | 0c | 52,932$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363f…3f39backed Yes | 0c | 52,812$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18e…ba0fbacked Yes | 0c | 52,750$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…9f79backed Yes | 0c | 52,625$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…1721backed Yes | 0c | 52,458$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa8…60f9backed Yes | 0c | 51,999$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 51,745$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5fbbbacked Yes | 0c | 29,363$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a47…5fdebacked Yes | 0c | 28,852$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…35e0backed Yes | 0c | 28,791$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3f…dca5backed Yes | 0c | 28,739$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…9b38backed Yes | 0c | 28,651$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf3…ed86backed Yes | 0c | 28,621$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc45c…d8b7backed Yes | 0c | 28,608$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…7ad8backed Yes | 0c | 28,442$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…ec25backed Yes | 0c | 28,350$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfc…2a82backed Yes | 0c | 28,341$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc110…f763backed Yes | 0c | 28,335$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…c6f1backed Yes | 0c | 28,241$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…8aa2backed Yes | 0c | 28,033$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f4…babbbacked Yes | 0c | 27,959$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…cdf1backed Yes | 0c | 27,931$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7c…644dbacked Yes | 0c | 27,921$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…36d9backed Yes | 1c | 24,277$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 0c | 18,596$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…73c5backed Yes | 0c | 15,848$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a5…5db6backed Yes | 0c | 15,825$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c5…d852backed Yes | 0c | 15,768$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…b4f3backed Yes | 0c | 15,525$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…acdcbacked Yes | 0c | 15,505$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6979…8e2ebacked Yes | 0c | 15,456$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a12…1c9dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,364$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…8f57backed Yes | 0c | 15,339$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a3…ac34backed Yes | 0c | 15,248$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,206$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…dc1dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,071$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…baafbacked Yes | 0c | 15,028$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca22…0c57backed Yes | 0c | 14,889$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…bdf2backed Yes | 0c | 14,799$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4848…0ef3backed Yes | 0c | 14,738$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d4…9949backed Yes | 0c | 14,707$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…6fe5backed Yes | 0c | 14,701$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6e…36d7backed Yes | 0c | 14,464$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…f54bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,419$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…44b7backed Yes | 0c | 14,386$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd26…048dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,233$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9594…06eabacked Yes | 0c | 14,033$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Yes | 0c | 12,594$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 3c | 11,189$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…3221backed Yes | 0c | 10,411$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d7…37b1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…8a63backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 1c | 8,244$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc06f…b833backed Yes | 0c | 7,134$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…7469backed Yes | 1c | 6,157$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694e…6f26backed Yes | 4c | 5,813$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Yes | 0c | 5,171$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…0ed9backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3615…eee4backed Yes | 0c | 4,919$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…7ac1backed Yes | 0c | 4,345$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x062b…834cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,909$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…5695backed Yes | 0c | 3,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 0c | 3,111$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…e24ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,093$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2898…d183backed Yes | 1c | 2,309$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…bf92backed Yes | 1c | 1,597$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…56e8backed Yes | 10c | 1,021$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…4199backed Yes | 13c | 827$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.02 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $35-40b one day after launch?this page
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch?Yes won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $10-15b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $15-20b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $20-25b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $25-30b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $30-35b one day after launch?No won
- Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) greater than $40b one day after launch?No won
- No Eigenlayer token launch in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.