TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $30-35b one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$505,815
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,423

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,815 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdba6…0218backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost-$100100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c34,465$93 inLost-$92.86571.8%1 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+116.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa102…36d9backed Yes1c22,274$207 inLost-$206.87425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-61.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe13b…8a63backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost-$40156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-89.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e9b…6729backed Yes0c16,364$16 inLost-$16.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9230…633ebacked Yes0c16,000$16 inLost-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecf7…5f80backed Yes0c15,888$16 inLost-$15.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e65…354cbacked Yes0c15,410$15 inLost-$15.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf42e…6d8bbacked Yes0c14,380$14 inLost-$14.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ce…b599backed Yes0c5,751$17 inLost-$1750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2898…d183backed Yes0c4,618$20 inLost-$20110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes1c4,494$24 inLost-$23.8460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes5c4,422$200 inLost-$200100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa489…e1f9backed Yes0c3,394$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b24…e24ebacked Yes6c3,333$200 inLost-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b3…7469backed Yes1c3,131$22 inLost-$22.1270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes1c3,000$20 inLost-$20848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2713…bf92backed Yes1c2,527$15 inLost-$15.1670%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes1c1,936$15 inLost-$14.587919%15 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e56…4199backed Yes15c1,600$240 inLost-$2401631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8c6…8fb9backed Yes5c200$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.