Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23f38f921adc4da679c5385699b5d8477f61a4da8454e7a4ed2efe39688905be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 27c | 1,105$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.55 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 49c | 1,083$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 1,076$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.19 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 30c | 672.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 51c | 652.2$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.18 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 31c | 518.91$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.83 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 19c | 457.95$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 451.52$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.61 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 53c | 334.63$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.25 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 77c | 294.63$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 30c | 268.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.69 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e40…ec9dbacked Yes | 67c | 266.1$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 28c | 256.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 71c | 255.2$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 198$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 192$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 65c | 183$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 29c | 181.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.65 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 8c | 174.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 170.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 18c | 168.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 164.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.29 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 152.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.55 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed Yes | 26c | 148.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 36c | 145.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 28c | 143.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.59 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 141.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 29c | 137.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.25 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 136.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 80c | 134.74$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 128.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 127.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 32c | 123.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 118$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 116.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…5b53backed No | 49c | 104.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 70c | 102$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 74c | 101.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 52c | 96.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 94.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 52c | 86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…fb9dbacked No | 32c | 84.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 82.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 52c | 75.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 38c | 74.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 70.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 70.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 68.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 30c | 67.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 60.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 60.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 73c | 57.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 64c | 57.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 54.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 52c | 51.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 59c | 51.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 45.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 48c | 44.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 61c | 41.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 30c | 40.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 45c | 39.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b63…1b82backed Yes | 51c | 39.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 38.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 72c | 38.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 37.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 29c | 35.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 38c | 33.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 39c | 33.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 64c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 75c | 29.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…9682backed Yes | 71c | 28.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 52c | 27.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 66c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 22.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 59c | 21.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.