TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
paiN Gamingof paiN Gaming, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$164,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,148 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c29…afadbacked Team Falcons74c21,952$16,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,273.56150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Falcons0c13,760$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.240014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked paiN Gaming24c10,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,600.4613020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Team Falcons49c8,095$3,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,966.0922647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed paiN Gaming51c5,931$3,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,923.7466662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked paiN Gaming26c5,761$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,260.1441242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked paiN Gaming45c4,438$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,455.2618746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons44c3,956$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.471,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed paiN Gaming36c3,834$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,442.5751751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Falcons80c3,524$2,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,818.2339660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Team Falcons77c3,388$2,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,603.113045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked paiN Gaming36c2,938$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.511,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked paiN Gaming32c2,643$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.431,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Falcons60c2,505$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50053451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed paiN Gaming29c2,066$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.919447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked paiN Gaming47c2,059$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.152,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed paiN Gaming23c2,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,54081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed paiN Gaming25c1,977$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.941,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked paiN Gaming30c1,711$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.571,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked paiN Gaming44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84038049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab1…9b4fbacked Team Falcons57c1,371$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.738048.8%39 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed paiN Gaming34c1,273$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.781,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked paiN Gaming59c1,268$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.4986949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed paiN Gaming52c1,246$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.481,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Falcons50c1,064$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.2546649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed paiN Gaming23c919.98$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.591,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed paiN Gaming44c866.95$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48628650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked paiN Gaming67c861.6$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.7418362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed paiN Gaming39c796.01$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.578749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed paiN Gaming26c790$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.0355147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team Falcons5c769.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.46132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed paiN Gaming61c733.75$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.8231835.8%114 W · 204 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed paiN Gaming19c726.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.8615653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Falcons9c723$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.91,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff96…027cbacked Team Falcons52c655.06$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3431729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c01…8c6cbacked Team Falcons31c645.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Team Falcons32c625$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20038653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Team Falcons77c611.14$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.4211960.5%72 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe524…0efcbacked Team Falcons73c600$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed paiN Gaming23c599.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.9958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaba0…62aabacked paiN Gaming26c599.98$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.991457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed paiN Gaming75c564$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.8619664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked paiN Gaming39c529.99$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.420043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed paiN Gaming59c527.56$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.331245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked paiN Gaming55c522.39$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.7173841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb64c…393dbacked Team Falcons61c516.87$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.129350.2%147 W · 146 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked paiN Gaming23c500$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.0517133.9%58 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed paiN Gaming52c455.04$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.5333041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f8…0e1fbacked paiN Gaming42c450$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2619440.4%38 W · 56 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62c7…d64fbacked Team Falcons30c445.75$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.857225%18 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6160…fdfcbacked paiN Gaming46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.781442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Team Falcons32c380.53$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5478516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed paiN Gaming48c361.77$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.42,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Team Falcons43c348.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed paiN Gaming56c342.48$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.2830356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked paiN Gaming39c337.94$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.157639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed paiN Gaming40c310.54$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.7550832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5664backed Team Falcons32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962035%7 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Team Falcons40c300$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12125147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed paiN Gaming67c280.67$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.676566.2%43 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked paiN Gaming31c276.4$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.382343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7db…4fa3backed Team Falcons35c270$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.593151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Falcons20c264.9$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8889938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed paiN Gaming28c261.11$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.5956548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc97…2811backed Team Falcons77c259.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002560%15 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…702dbacked paiN Gaming51c243.14$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.142711.1%3 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-67.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Team Falcons37c228.7$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.513456%75 W · 59 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Falcons59c215$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.71,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed paiN Gaming27c211.11$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.111,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked paiN Gaming64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7288166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked paiN Gaming62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7632652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Team Falcons44c195.15$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8586451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed paiN Gaming43c189.11$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.884837.5%18 W · 30 L-7.1wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-22.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xda4c…1cc2backed Team Falcons43c186.05$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked paiN Gaming24c178.97$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.7360542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dab…f602backed paiN Gaming28c175.5$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.363228.1%9 W · 23 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-43.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe52e…ac6dbacked paiN Gaming29c172.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.412240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed paiN Gaming67c168.51$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6172035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked paiN Gaming32c165.63$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.6319443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed paiN Gaming26c160.57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.2950032.2%161 W · 339 L-47.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf456…3855backed Team Falcons12c157.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1917337.6%65 W · 108 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed paiN Gaming55c150$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.547951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Team Falcons60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9092561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed paiN Gaming37c150$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1924138.6%93 W · 148 L-18.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c06…bbeebacked paiN Gaming23c149.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.483330.3%10 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-35.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb79…6274backed Team Falcons78c135.62$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4117152%89 W · 82 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Team Falcons74c135.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x984b…88fbbacked Team Falcons78c134.98$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.285160.8%31 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked paiN Gaming20c121.35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0856243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Team Falcons31c120$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.214744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Team Falcons12c117.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3617330.1%52 W · 121 L-16.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x90f0…2923backed Team Falcons43c115.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011443.9%50 W · 64 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed paiN Gaming63c111.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1657654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Team Falcons59c111$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4959250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Team Falcons32c105$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.124527.3%67 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Team Falcons28c104$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1136044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed paiN Gaming29c103.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4514832.4%48 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3492…983fbacked Team Falcons22c101.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.467159.2%42 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Team Falcons11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.416725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa900…5acebacked Team Falcons26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265048%24 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.