MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24003f335f9c16b17b5e4dcfbbf4bbc68a6a9a6ba2540acff5aa1827c759a775
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 1,882$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 1,871$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 48c | 1,856$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.8 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 772$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 32c | 656.15$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.97 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 68c | 574.63$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.88 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 26c | 516.47$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 53c | 447.87$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 47c | 432$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.04 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 407.15$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e37…cfbdbacked Under | 66c | 98.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 68c | 81.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 78.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…09d0backed Under | 78c | 77.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 54.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…d153backed Over | 34c | 50.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…7f28backed Over | 34c | 48.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 28c | 46.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 30c | 40.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 76c | 38.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…9b79backed Under | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 45c | 26.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 68c | 16.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.