TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,762
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,762 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef1b…8697backed No58c12,100$7,012 inLost-$7,011.9114042.9%60 W · 80 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Yes42c5,936$2,493 inWon+$3,442.7711656.9%66 W · 50 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Yes42c4,000$1,680 inWon+$2,3201,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Yes44c1,214$534 inWon+$679.8238353.5%205 W · 178 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes43c647.11$279 inWon+$367.952,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes42c395.83$168 inWon+$228.018,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0a1…e6d5backed No55c359.98$198 inLost-$197.997751.9%40 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked No55c209.83$115 inLost-$115.412,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes42c208$87 inWon+$120.641,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Yes43c200$86 inWon+$1149,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd190…e445backed No56c160.06$90 inLost-$9016456.7%93 W · 71 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes45c111.11$50 inWon+$61.1147850.4%241 W · 237 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Yes45c85.56$38 inWon+$47.0631449.4%155 W · 159 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Yes42c80$34 inWon+$46.432857.9%190 W · 138 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Yes42c79.2$33 inWon+$45.9430048%144 W · 156 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00df…701bbacked Yes48c66$32 inWon+$34.329347.3%44 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked No56c40.2$23 inLost-$22.518446.4%39 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes44c40.05$18 inWon+$22.4350337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked No52c40$21 inLost-$20.845749%224 W · 233 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x590a…c459backed No56c26.52$15 inLost-$14.8511451.8%59 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9752…6fbfbacked No56c25.89$14 inLost-$14.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Yes41c24.47$10 inWon+$14.4461352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ec7…ed98backed Yes45c23.47$11 inWon+$12.914850%24 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked No56c22.61$13 inLost-$12.6670455%387 W · 317 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.