MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c83543285ba8a718bc2dc72e3bc25ebfe3c65e4d338f18618f690d7f89d0466
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Kansas City Royals, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 4,938$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.14 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 4,522$2,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 599.26$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.74 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 593.99$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.9 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 24c | 294.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 281.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 263.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 238.9$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 201.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 176$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 97.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 86.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 26c | 76.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 76.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 49.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 42.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 40.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 37.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc9…d80bbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 34.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 31.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Boston Red Sox | 70c | 29.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 25.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 22.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 73c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 18.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Boston Red Sox | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.