MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x774eebd9047b6811e24ce39c4179dded3b1709528e6071bacf3518098fe953fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 51c | 81,005$41,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,702.49 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 49c | 76,383$37,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,427.74 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 69c | 3,868$2,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,656.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 49c | 3,266$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.34 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 2,658$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,873.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 71c | 2,556$1,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.67 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Over | 49c | 2,551$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 1,995$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.72 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 72c | 1,836$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.62 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 37c | 1,794$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 1,410$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 49c | 1,395$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.42 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 33c | 1,284$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.69 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 73c | 1,008$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.95 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 50c | 966.33$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.16 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 51c | 887.72$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.22 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 51c | 796.14$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.11 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 69c | 479$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 27c | 456.8$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.23 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 58c | 426.7$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 26c | 388.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 33c | 371.48$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.89 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 33c | 371.48$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.89 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 49c | 368.08$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.36 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 35c | 367.42$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.46 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 74c | 331.26$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 47c | 303.3$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.75 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 64c | 299.22$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 38c | 216$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.92 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 40c | 192$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…1d1fbacked Under | 27c | 184.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.91 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 35c | 166.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 159.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 22c | 145.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 23c | 117$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Under | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed Over | 28c | 98.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 51c | 95.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 50c | 94.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 37c | 90.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 74.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Under | 52c | 71.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 64c | 68.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 58c | 67.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 29c | 67.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Over | 61c | 65.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 30c | 65.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 65.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 34c | 64.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 25c | 55.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 36c | 52.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92fe…f901backed Over | 50c | 50.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 51c | 49.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…07d7backed Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…b1a1backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 49c | 41.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 26c | 40.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 52c | 39.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 38c | 37.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 52c | 32.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 51c | 24.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…ae63backed Under | 50c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…7fdebacked Under | 52c | 22.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 51c | 22.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…8e4abacked Under | 52c | 20.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 53c | 19.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 77c | 17.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd318…6f23backed Over | 78c | 13.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.