Mls · resolved market
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x240efa7a5738dbf190ff0bc9c320731024f62cf1743cfb60760b38315f49d8da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 30c | 2,703$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.71 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 69c | 1,510$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.29 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,400$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 63c | 769.42$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.69 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6de1backed Yes | 32c | 734.25$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 27c | 642.9$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.61 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 70c | 578.2$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.11 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 30c | 500.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 34c | 495.7$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.33 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 68c | 361.58$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.31 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 64c | 353.38$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 68c | 342$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.94 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…ea0abacked Yes | 30c | 333.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0e…5e62backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…1497backed Yes | 33c | 290.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed Yes | 30c | 263.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f51…43debacked Yes | 4c | 251.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…9257backed Yes | 6c | 233.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 63c | 233.03$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 36c | 214.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 80c | 189.97$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 37c | 189.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…dcafbacked Yes | 36c | 172.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 64c | 149.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 69c | 142$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 70c | 136$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7053…25e4backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 64c | 123.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…3fe8backed No | 64c | 119.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 70c | 119$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Yes | 27c | 105.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +67%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 64c | 98.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 64c | 98.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 70c | 91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 86.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 37c | 69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 70c | 62.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…a521backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 63c | 57.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Yes | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…547fbacked Yes | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 35c | 38.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked Yes | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed No | 73c | 37.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…780bbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc051…5fc3backed No | 74c | 26.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 71c | 26.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 65c | 22.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 67c | 22.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 67c | 22.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 75c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 70c | 15.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-03?this page
- Will Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?No won
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-03?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.