NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x245379e2edf88888b9cf63ba4a1c660a3bf7b91ec319dd221d9e9c1f314bc6f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Under | 50c | 24,786$12,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,283.47 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 12,609$6,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,228.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Over | 51c | 7,777$3,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,966.25 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 50c | 5,749$2,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,874.59 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Over | 50c | 4,266$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,133 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 3,780$1,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887.33 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 3,091$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.65 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 51c | 2,648$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.52 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 51c | 2,048$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.47 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.92 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Over | 50c | 1,327$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.38 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.2 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 50c | 523.27$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.73 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 418$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.18 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Under | 49c | 275.51$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.51 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 160$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 49c | 134$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d3…0764backed Over | 53c | 116$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 49c | 110.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…2000backed Over | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 51c | 104.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 49c | 72.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Under | 51c | 40.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…c180backed Under | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…3ba6backed Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 49c | 31.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54c…c1efbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5this page
- Jazz vs. CelticsJazz won
- Jazz vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.